Polymarket traders bet on Iran ceasefire even as oil shock concerns persist

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The Iran war has single-handedly soured the macro environment for risk-takers in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets sprang to life on Sunday, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and eyeing a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no prior transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of potential insider positioning on the outcome.

In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief bounce.

For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin BTC$70,663.83 held below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining losses from the weekend. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth decline in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09302 and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens such as NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the past 24 hours.

“The market is trading one theme above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new escalation phase, including U.S. pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value-capture profile in crypto for this tape: scarce asset, improving institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership versus the rest of the complex.,” he said.

Market flows, however, have yet to validate that view. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered outflows for the third straight day on Friday, alongside significant selling by large holders, or whales.

Ether, too, has seen large liquidations. A whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multimonth highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Crypto
Macro
- March 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Construction Spending MoM for January est. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Governance votes & calls
- Aave DAO is voting on deploying Aave V4 with a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting ends March 23.
- Floki DAO is voting to rank entries from Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting ends March 23.
Unlocks
- No major unlocks.
Token Launches
- March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking launches officially

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

BTC is up 3.01% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24hrs: +3.56%)
ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24hrs: +4.20%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24hrs: 2.56%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 2.83%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
FTSE 100 is down 2.03% at 9,716.51
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% at 5,390.70
DJIA closed on Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 11 bps at 4.39%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 6,626.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $32.30
Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 16 oz.
BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index in candlestick format. (TradingView)

The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
BVIV has bounced to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be in the offing.
That’s because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits well above the 200-day SMA and is trending north. It shows that the near-term trend is up.
Heightened volatility is usually a feature of a bear market.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in pre-market
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies