Trump’s executive order could break Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle: Bitwise CIO

U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order on crypto, coupled with an overall regulatory pivot in the United States, could break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

That’s the view of Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset manager Bitwise. The Bitwise executive shared his outlook in a note published on Jan. 29.

“Specifically, I’ve been wondering if the recent change in Washington’s attitude toward crypto is a big enough catalyst to “break” the four-year cycle and extend crypto’s current bull market into 2026 and beyond,” Hougan wrote.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle

Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a four-year cycle, with three years of general upward price movement in a bull market, followed by a pullback. This pattern played out in 2014 after the Mt. Gox collapse, in 2018 amid the Securities and Exchange’s ICO crackdown, and in 2022 following the Terra ecosystem’s collapse.

In this case, the 2022 bear market paved the way for a “great 2023 and 2024”.

“If we were following the classic four-year cycle, 2025 would be a great year for crypto. And I think it will be: We’re on the record predicting that bitcoin’s price will double this year to above $200,000, driven by flows into ETFs and bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments. That may turn out to be conservative,” Hougan noted.

Crypto’s current cycle, coming after the painful pullback that saw contagion decimate sentiment, got its catalyst from Grayscale’s victory against the SEC.The legal win accelerated the eventual approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

BTC price rose from around $22k at the time of Grayscale’s argument against SEC in court to hit all-time highs above $100k in 2024.