As the U.S. presidential election barrels toward an inflection point, millions of dollars in bets on the White House’s winner will soon be settled through the ballot box—in theory, at least.

For months, the growing popularity of prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi has positioned Election Day as a high-stakes betting spectacle. And their rise has inspired similar offerings from firms like Robinhood, enabling traders to wager on the next commander-in-chief.

However, determining an election winner won’t be as straightforward as the effective coin toss that prediction platforms foresee in the 2024 race’s final moments. Rather, each market is pushing forward with its own format for resolving millions of dollars of bets placed between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Author: André Beganski